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Are the Quantity Theory and Money (OTM) Still Relevant?
Conway Lee Lackman, William Carson

Last modified: 2021-02-23

Abstract


In the St.,St. Louis Federal Reserve Review of Nov, 1968, Anderson and Jordan presented strong evidence suporting QTM preseinted strong evidence suppointing QTM and Paul Volcker used monetary policy to defeat the Great INflaiton in 1982.

But, work by Xi Wang (Washinton U( and Robert Lucas (U o Chicago) found that QTM broke donw in the mid 80's which rendered the St. Louis Fed model useless.

Before discarding QTM and monetary policy, we consider the following points:

*Our statistically signifacnt regression models for 1985-2000 showing money affected the economy in that period. We are working on 2000-2020.

*Following Xi and Lucas-Nicolini, we propose a new money definition (adding credit card and home equity) for better results.

*Fed induced recessions prior to 1984 hav different relations than post '84 recessions caused by exopenous factors which impacts the regression models.

*The Fed prefers the Federal Funds rate to conduct monetary policy rather than the money stock. We compare the two methods.


Keywords


macrofinance