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In this paper we investigate the employment experience of Virginia through the last two economic recessions and subsequent recoveries. While many are familiar with how the nation as a whole has done in the employment arena, we find it informative to take a closer look at the diversity of employment growth experiences across the state and investigate some of the drivers behind those differences. One important factor in this is variation in employment distribution across industries within each of Virginia’s fifteen Workforce Investment Areas (WIA) across the state, with some industries being more important to growth in some areas of the state than in others. The employment distribution in conjunction with the performance of each industry in an area, relative to both statewide industry performance and the aggregate performance of all industries, goes a long way toward explaining the disparity in employment growth rates across the state. To break this down we apply a dynamic shift-share analysis that decomposes the employment experience of each MSA in each year into separate components based on relative industry performance across NAICS Supersectors. We then construct graphics that facilitate the discussion and illustrate the differing contributions of each industry in a straightforward fashion.

Regional Growth, Industry Employment, Dynamic Shift-Share