NABET, NABET 2019 Conference

Font Size: 
HOW PAUL VOLCER STOPPED THE GREAT INFLATION 1965-82: An Econometric Investigation
William Carlson, Conway Lackman

Last modified: 2019-12-19

Abstract


The Volcker plan used control of non-borrowed reserves to reduce the growth of the money stock to lower inflation. Lower money growth led to the 1980 recession that did not do the job and a second recession that did. We show that each of the nine recessions and we know recessions are the only reliable way to reduce inflation. Had Volcker known of a painless way to combat inflation, presumably he would have used it. A "soft landing" solution to inflation is yet to be found. The best solution is to prevent inflation. But if inflation occurs all of the recessions from 1937-8 to that of 1981-2 plus the slowdown of 1967 lowered.the rate of inflation. The 1990-1, 2001, and 2008-9 recessions also led to lower inflation.

The Andersen-Jordan St. Louis Fed study, the January 1979 Fed staff study, and Meltzer's real GNP - money graphs indicated that declines in money growth would lead to recession if persistent enough. All of the 1937-1982 recessions were accompanied by lowered money growth. The plan worked. What we have done is provide a statistical background of what happened and why? We could say that the Fed should have used the monetary base rather than non-borrowed reserves to control money. It would be easier to control borrowing from the Fed if the Fed was alert to bank borrowing for risk free profits when the discount rate is lower than the TBill rate.  This paper presents significant detail on this complex factual story.

 


Keywords


Volker, FED, Inflation