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Ending the Great Inflation
Conway Lackman, William Carlson

Last modified: 2018-10-08

Abstract


This paper has seven sections. The first three are background. The last four follow historic events.  Part 1 describes major problems of 1979: Disintermediation from the banks, stagflation (high unemployment, high inflation, and high interest rates), Banks leaving the Federal Reserve System, and zombie S&Ls (bankrupt on a mark to market accounting basis as opposed to historic cost).   Part 2 discusses economic thought prevalent in 1979: Keynes, incomes jawboning policy, the Phillips Curve, and McChesney Martin's punchbowl approach. Part 3 discusses the problems of measuring money caused by the invention of NOWs (negotiable orders of withdrawal) and money market fund balances. Were they savings, transactions balances, or a hybrid? Money-GNP regressions are conducted. Part 4 shows that the old policies of Part 2 were not working and that a new one was needed. Part 5 describes Volcker's new plan to control money growth along with its flaws. Inflation regression results are presented. Part 6 resumes the quarterly historic narrative of 1979-83 events featuring the back to back recessions of 1980 and 1981-2. Part 7 analyzes the end of the Great Inflation and recovery.


Keywords


Inflation